Why every election gets its own crisis


Yeah I love Megan Trainor. That music will never get old. Man I can’t wait to vote in the upcoming election. Let’s see what’s happening in the news. Washington now ground zero for the Ebola fear. The Ebola
crisis becoming a major election issue. Candidates are scrambling to stake out positions. But will the fallout tip the battle for congressional
control? Someone could get off a flight and seek treatment
from a witch doctor. What the fuuuuu— I love Fight Song that’ll never get old. Man I can’t wait for the upcoming election. Let’s see what’s happening in the news. New developments on a bombshell that could
reshape the 2016 race. New emails related to the Clinton email investigation. Bombshell announcement has rocked the presidential campaign. Could not only make a difference in this presidential
race but also the control of the Senate. What the fuuuuuuuuuu— There’s no time for pop music, the republic’s on fire, Brenda. Man I can’t wait to vote in the upcoming
election. Let’s see what’s in the — Migrant caravan has captured
the world’s attention. President has put the caravan on center stage. It’ll be a big part of the midterm election. It’s going to be an election of the caravan. What the fu — Wait a minute aren’t they like a thousand
miles away? Why are we freaking out about this now? Why does it always feel like some big sensational
news story breaks right before it’s time to vo — oh my god. I get it now. Yes we are barely two weeks away from the
midterms and Republicans are hitting hard against the growing migrant caravan. Now the question becomes will this sway voters
in the midterms? There is this concept in American politics
called the October surprise. And no it is not what drag queens do on Halloween. October surprise refers to a big unexpected event that gets tons of media coverage and
sways people’s votes right before an election. In 2004 it was Osama bin Laden releasing a
video threatening the US. It was inevitable that just before the election there would
be some kind of a message from Osama bin Laden. The video focused the media’s attention on terrorism,
which ended up benefiting Bush during the election. In 2012, it was Hurricane Sandy, which gave Obama a
chance to look like a leader and problem solver right before his election against Mitt Romney. We’ve got our October surprise now, looks like it’s Hurricane Sandy. Typically October surprise describes something unexpected, but it can
also be something more calculated. When political operatives intentionally exploit and use stories
to distract voters and do maximum damage to their opponent. During the 2014 midterm election, it was Ebola. We begin with the breaking news the deadly
Ebola outbreak in Africa. And tonight the first confirmed case here
in America. The story quickly became a Republican rallying
cry. Ladies and gentlemen we’ve got an Ebola outbreak,
we need to seal the border and secure it. We have Ebola. We have to secure the border. And news outlets follow their lead, running
weeks of sensational wall-to-wall Ebola coverage. Are there concerns of an outbreak in the US? Should they be concerned? Is the threat only going to grow? The ISIS of biological agents. Are we going overboard here? This chart shows
how much airtime cable news networks devoted to Ebola. Look at the spike right in the middle of October. It’s emerged already as the most watched news
events as the entire Obama presidency began. That coverage created a vicious cycle. The
more news network talked about Ebola the more politicians had to talk about it to seem relevant. As one Republican strategist told NPR, it’s almost
impossible for candidates to break into this news cycle unless they’re talking about ISIS or Ebola. It’s a terrible thing to say, but fear
is a heck of a motivator for voters. Research conducted after the midterms found
that, in the 34 states with Senate elections, higher internet search volume for Ebola was associated
with greater intention to vote for Republican candidates. In 2016, the October surprise was Hillary Clinton’s
e-mail. Take a shot. Weeks before the election, FBI Director James
Comey sent a letter to Congress saying the FBI had found new e-mails. God damn it. Pertinent to the investigation
into Clinton’s private server. Trump is relishing Clinton’s October surprise. This is bigger than Watergate. The party welcoming this new line of attack, as
Republican candidates make their closing arguments to voters. And once again, every news network took the bait. An October surprise unlike anything we have
ever seen. Trump has been lagging behind, could this change anything? The story dominated the
New York Times’ front page for days. The October surprise no one saw coming. This chart shows how much Clinton coverage
was scandal-related in the weeks leading up to the election. There’s a huge spike right after Comey’s letter
is released. We will find out soon whether any of those
new emails contain classified information. A few days later, Comey announced it had all
been a big nothing burger. The director clearing Hillary Clinton on those
new emails. But it was too late. Look at Hillary’s approval ratings in the
weeks after that story broke. Now, it’s the migrant caravan. After Trump began tweeting about a group of
migrants traveling to the US in hopes of seeking asylum, Republicans turned the story into their closing
campaign message. The caravan is coming. Marching on our border. Some say criminals among them. You already know what happens next. Immigration is taking center stage ahead of
the midterm elections. Trump’s using the caravan as a critical midterm
closing argument. Front page after front page in The New York Times, wall-to-wall coverage
on every network. Let’s talk about the caravan. Let’s talk about the caravan. Let’s talk about this caravan. Look at how many hours have been dedicated to the
story on cable news in the past few weeks alone. Is this going to be a winning issue for your
party? I do think it’s a winning issue and I think
the president’s handling it perfectly. As one Trump official told The Daily Beast, It doesn’t matter if it’s 100 percent accurate. This is the play. It seems to me that it’s playing
out remarkably well for the Republicans. You didn’t say e-mails. This one’s for me. These October surprises
all follow the same formula. The Ebola crisis, the email server issue, the caravan. That is a sexy ass formula. It’s drama it’s
narrative tension. It’s CNN’s wet dream. It’s also complete bullshit. These stories seem really important when they’re
happening but they’re almost always PR stunts. Look again at the coverage of Ebola in 2014. Look at the drop off once the election’s over. It’s not like the problem suddenly got fixed after
the election. The number of Ebola cases in Liberia actually
increased after November. But nobody cared anymore. The story had served its purpose. The same is true for
the Clinton… Bremail… story. Close enough. Months after Trump won the White
House it’s reported that he repeatedly uses an unsecured phone line for personal communication. Intelligence experts say he’s definitely being
listened to by Russia and China but the story barely makes a blip on the radar, because it
was never about national security. It was about winning an election. And the same thing will
happen with this migrant caravan story. We know that because we’ve already been through
this before. Earlier this year Trump fearmongered about another
migrant caravan traveling to the US. The group was largely ignored until President
Trump used them to highlight the immigration debate. The story sparked a major media firestorm
for a few days. Are you watching that mess with the caravan? But then it faded from public debate. Eventually the migrants arrived and quietly
began going through the normal process to apply for asylum. All 228 people are being processed. The legal process could take months even years. We didn’t hear about it because it wasn’t
election season yet. This is a caravan that has been organized
for years, they’ve been doing this for more than five years. And the evil genius of the
October surprise is that it works even if journalists realize it’s a gimmick. A lot of news networks
have correctly noted that the migrant caravan story is bullshit. President has called it an assault on theU.S.
border. It is absolutely not. It’s nowhere near the US border. But because
Republicans can’t stop talking about it, neither can they. This has become a key Republican
rallying cry. There are, quote, ” criminals and unknown Middle Easterners.” Criminals and unknown Middle Easterners. Criminals, and unknown Middle Easterners. Criminals and unknown Middle
Easterners mixed in with this caravan. Strategy seems designed to scare voters by constantly
repeating a false threat. Yeah well it appears to be working Brenda. The point of the October Surprise isn’t to
warn voters about a real threat, it’s to distract them for long enough to get them to vote against
their own interests. One Trump official told CNN that the immigration
push is clearly working because we’re talking about it and not health care. Days before the caravan story blew up Mitch
McConnell pledged that Republicans would try to repeal Obamacare again if they survived
the midterms. Another report revealed that the Republican
tax cuts have exploded the deficit which is now the worst it’s been in six years and Republicans
plan to deal with that deficit by you guessed it: cutting social programs. There’s been a bipartisan reluctance to tackle
entitlement changes, Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid. Hopefully we’ll get serious about this. Those stories aren’t sexy. They don’t have the drama of an October surprise,
but they are stories that affect millions of people’s ability to survive in this country. Stories about policy differences that actually
matter on Election Day. Trump is talking about this because he wants
to distract from the fact that they want to cut Medicare. But this caravan is coming. What’s the Democratic Party’s message about
the caravan? The truth is there’s no great defense against
the October Surprise strategy. Our breaking news culture is super vulnerable
to last minute bad faith publicity stunts. But what you can do is ask who benefits If I freak out about this? And what are they
trying to hide?




Comments
  1. For more Vox's Dara Lind explains how a group of Central American migrants still hundreds of miles from the US border became Trump’s closing election argument: http://bit.ly/2F49Kaa

  2. Yet for Democracts in this recent cycle all two years was a pre-election hype.
    1. Something big, scary, and vague is coming.
    2. It all rests on the election!

  3. At this point, I think our system is beyond repair. There's no fixing all of this crap. Sure you can be informed but that doesn't mean that most Americans will. It seriously feels like there's nothing anyone can do to fix this. The people can vote, but they likely won't have the numbers because ignorance is easier. Even if they do get some people they want in power, the media will just create a shitstorm and prevent any progress from being made. I'm seriously considering moving to Canada.

  4. I'm waiting for the day where people realize we really aren't very different from each other like our bipartisan politics lead us to believe. Ahhh yes, how nice that would be.

  5. Researchers, do u get emotionally drained from listening to the news reporters say the same thing over and over and over again?

  6. Of course, at the end everyone blamed Russia for electing the orange baby president, so the army has enough excuses to waste more money on "national security"…

  7. Trump has certainly exaggerated the danger of the caravan. I would say most of them are seeking financial opportunities. But still, it's something that needs to be discussed, and if Democrats refuse to talk about and pretend that everything is ok with it and there's absolutely no danger at all, that's even worse than what Trump does.

    These type of plays are done by both parties by the way.

  8. So, I feel like trump will go against what america is built upon and say "its for the american people' people may have forgotten that he has ties to Russia that are too obvious to ignore such as how when ever someone asks a sensitive and specific question he will try to dodge that by providing a response that doesn't answer the question, just recently he had one of his members in the trump administration take a microphone from a reporter who was simply doing his job, and how he claims that most of his votes are from african americans, while it is only 8% and that 8%…where is your brain? XD

  9. Per Wikipedia: "On October 7, 2016, during the 2016 United States presidential election, The Washington Post published a video and accompanying article about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and television host Billy Bush having "an extremely lewd conversation about women" in 2005"

    HOW is that NOT the October Surprise, WHY didn't you mention it at all, and WTF did this not END Donald Trump by repulsing all decent human beings in the country?

  10. Just a comment I've wanted to share.
    Left wing people that think it is so wrong for the US to not let illegal immigrants into our country are the same people that want the US to be more like Europe. But what they don't know, or what they choose to look past, is the fact that European countries are MUCH much stricter on immigration than the US is!! Germany regrets all of the refugees they took in, and now there are cictzens there that want to pay for them to leave. I think there is a misconception of the rest of the world.

  11. "The migrant caravan is like far away and stuff"
    Yeah, if an asteroid is about to hit Earth but it is still at Mars, are we not supposed to be worried?

  12. dude I gotta read better. I was all prepared to come to the "why every electron gets its own crisis" video and type out "because they're so negative… so negative…"

  13. I just watched this whole season from the beginning and was thinking the whole team deserves some seriously prestigious press prize for their stellar work, but then you referenced Trixie and Katya and now I'm thinking Nobel…..

  14. CNN and MSNBC may have been pushing back on Trump's caravan narrative, but at the end of the day they are still talking about the caravan. Trump still controls the message, he still wins. Democrats need to ignore him, focus on their agenda, and let Trump drown in his own absurdity and incompetence.

  15. People in 3076 the people of America (assuming it hasn’t fallen apart by then) will be talking about how presidential candidate A is an alien and how we need to secure the borders of earth.

  16. Funny that everyone got mad at Hillary for her passwords but nobody got mad when they revealed that the nuke launch passcode was 8888 for like 50 years

  17. Hey vox, check out the news now. The refugees are NOW at the border. And they are waving flags. This is an ACT OF WAR instead of seeking asylum. I have to say. You are FAKE NEWS.

  18. Forget about Hillary's e-mails. A week before the 2016 election, there were threats of a "scary clown purge." After months of evil clown sightings (the vast majority of which were unsubstantiated), they dried-up immediately after the 2016 election. WHAT A COINCIDENCE. Except that Republican voters are motivated by fear. So scary stories about ebola, scary clowns, and migrant caravans are an effective tactic for getting them out to the polls. There's actually an overwhelming bulk of articles that explain actual differences in the way Republican and Democratic brains think (specifically that Republicans are more motivated by fear and they perceive threats more readily).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_clown_sightings
    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mind-in-the-machine/201612/fear-and-anxiety-drive-conservatives-political-attitudes

  19. Every time Mitch McConnell mumbles about 'entitlements' I want to slap him. Those are programs that I paid money into, and now my money is going to be taken to pay for tax cuts that benefit the wealthy. #FOH

  20. Really? a caravan going from South America in to usa were called middle eastern? Hey did they ever look on the map where is middle eastern? I thought those terrorist were rich enough to afford a plane to go directly in to the usa if they can hijacked a plane?(i read somewhere that someone call them middle eastern)

  21. Breaking News: Nothing is happening in October. Civilization may collapse if your votes go to [blank]. Vote for [other_blank] to prevent this.

  22. Think critically for yourselves or be swept up in the tsumani of madness. This is what the downfall of a nation looks like.

  23. Do you guys actually have to take a shot whenever y’all talk about the emails. If so, then I definitely want to work at vox.

  24. The left has all the comedians, musicians, artists and intellectuals. Its literally the more entertaining side 🙂

  25. The whole time i was saying you motherxxx. Also all the people who dislike these video did not see these video

  26. Next season of this "strikethrough" should be titled, "Why Vox's series "strikethrough" continues to suffer, and looses more and more validity and attention, even though Vox strides to place political correctness over journalistic integrity and interesting topics our viewers may actually WANT to see and/or find amusing.."

  27. I'm not even American, but I love how VOX debunks all the bullshit politicians and medias invent or blow out of proportion. This is really good content, or better say, real news!

  28. I swear this guy only talks about how bad republicans are without freaking talking about the democrats,
    I smell a bit of bias

  29. So Donald trump can use a private call line but an old lady can’t send private emails?? That’s not fair and purely political

  30. The e-mails made the least surprising surprise in my 46 years of voting. Anyone could have predicted that stunt. Sad to say, the Dems are exceptionally skilled in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Hilary might have made a good president, but 24 years mud slinging has left her covered with exaggerated and imaginary stains. They couldn't have chosen a more vulnerable candidate.

  31. I find it very odd that the Republican party's hatred of America and attempts to murder Americans is not considered interesting.

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