When Should Dems Polling Under 2% Get Out?


Okay. So I told you at the start of this week that
if the recent polling trends continued, uh, by the end of this week, or maybe by early
next week, Joe Biden could be out of first place in the Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders could be all the way down to
fourth place. That was if the recent trends continued and
they have not. Okay. The trends have reversed. Both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have recovered
a little bit of that support that they’ve recently lost in the last 10 to 14 days or
so. Uh, both Camilla Harris and Elizabeth Warren
who had been the big gainers since the, uh, over the last 10 days or since the democratic
debate have leveled off. So as of now, Joe Biden is still in first
place, although certainly by a smaller margin than he has been. Bernie Sanders is back into second place,
but just, just, just barely while Camila Harris and Elizabeth Warren are sort of steady in
third and fourth places respectively. Now what I want to deal with today is I want
to think about if and when should the candidates poling under 1% abandoned the race if and
when should the candidates polling under 2% get out of this race? Uh, there are lots of them. Okay. According to the real clear politics average
of recent polls, there are currently nine candidates polling under 1% those are Delaney,
Tim Ryan, Marianne Williamson, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bennett and Hickenlooper build a Blasio, Jay
Inslee and Bullock nine candidates currently polling under 1% now you’ll notice that Eric
Swalwell is not on the list. He was at the debate a week or two ago, but
he ended his presidential run earlier this week. Recognizing he’s getting absolutely no traction
whatsoever. Something. Some of the others, it’s unclear whether they
recognize or not or at least it’s unclear whether they care. So that’s the nine under 1%. In addition, there are four more candidates
polling between one and 2%. Those are Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, who
Leanne Castro and Tulsi Gabard, and then just just just barely eking out. 2% are Cory booker at 2.1 and Bedo O’Rourke
with 2.6 now, a few thoughts about this before we move on and really dig into what is it
that these candidates should be doing. It’s kind of a tragedy that Beta is ahead
of Julio Castro. Beta imploded in the presidential debate in
the Democratic primary debate a couple of weeks ago. Julio on Castro was actually quite strong,
but Beta was still slightly ahead. That’s unfortunate. Uh, number two, similarly, Amy Klobuchar was
a train wreck in that first debate while Kirsten Gillibrand actually did pretty well. I don’t agree with her on all policy, but
just in evaluating debate, performance, Dillard brand did significantly better than Klobuchar. Clovis are somehow ahead of Gillette brand. But again, this is all like they’re all polling,
so they’re kind of all within the margin of error in a sense. So the immediate question is how long should
these candidates stay in the race? I am four more candidates. I am for more choices. I’m for a more debate and more dialogue and
different ideas as part of the primary process. But I also want there to be more depth in
the debates. That can’t happen when you have 20 candidates
across two stages and 32nd rebuttals as the standard format. Okay, so I, I do believe that we would in
many ways benefit from starting to trim the field down. We pulled our audience on youtube at youtube.com/the
David Pakman show. Slash. Community. The question was who should exit the Democratic
primary before the next debates? At the end of this month, 7% of our audience
say everybody should stay in 48% want everyone pulling under 5% to get out, which is very
harsh. A 22% say everybody under 2% should get out
and 15% say everyone under 1% should get out. Now, just as a thought experiment, if everybody
under 5% got out today, that would leave only five candidates and that includes p booted
judge at exactly 5% and not a fraction more. It seems a bit aggressive to me at this point
in time. We’re still about a year out from the convention,
but certainly if you’re still under 1% at this point in time, you have no shot. I would get out. I think that the two percenters could make
the case for staying in to the second debate. There’s a good chance they’ll be eliminated
by the requirements before the third debate on September 12th and 13 to anyway, the next
debate is at the end of this month, July 30 and 31 on CNN. A lot of these, you know, the, the two percenters,
many of them are going to be gone before the third debate anyway because they’re simply
not going to qualify. So, uh, as a reminder to make that early September
3rd debate, candidates need to have both at least 2% in four different polls and 130,000
unique donors as of right now, only Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, uh, Elizabeth
Warren and Pete Buddha judge have met that criteria. So this race will be effectively smaller by
September 12th. Even if a lot of these candidates stay in,
they’re not going to be on that third debate stage until, unless things change radically. Um, and potentially we will be down to just
one debate stage by September 12th instead of having to do it on two nights. So let me know what you think our audience,
at least on Youtube, an unscientific reflection merely of the fraction of our nearly 700,000
youtube subscribers who chose to vote in this poll. Say if you’re under 5%, you should get out
immediately. That seems a little bit aggressive, but a
lot of these folks will be gone by September 12th let me know what you think. Uh, I’m on Twitter at d pacman. The show is Twitter at David Pakman show and voting is still open on the David
Pakman show youtube channel. If you want to cast your vote, the David Pakman
show




Comments
  1. My biggest concern is lack of diversity and opinion in a PRIMARY debate. Why would I want to hear 5 candidates talk like Bernie Sanders for an hour? I want to hear paradigm-shifting ideas the entire night that will have audience members constantly googling topics. You can't have that by limiting your choices this early into the campaign. If you really want the 1%ers out of the race at this point, then you don't want aprinary season.

  2. I've been getting you on my youtube homepage this week. Plus a little less MSNBC (which is good). Corporate media, as you say, has really let down the 4th Estate.

    Keep fighting the good fight and staying out of the ones that divide us (on the left). We will never win that way but instead, sound like self-righteous blowhards.

    Which is exactly what Corporate media likes to see so that they can feign the appearance of objectivity and cover "both sides" to maximize their ratings with little regard for the truth and the powerless.

  3. I remember a news guy saying something like, "also running is a peanut farmer from Georgia named…..here it is, Jimmy Carter".

  4. Cull the field now, PLEASE!! Many of the <3% are issue duplicates of more viable candidates. Dems are supporting several worthy, but complex, positions. It's a disservice to voters that needed depth can't be provided to make an informed choice for standard bearer.

  5. Hey David, Saludos desde Argentina wacho, no suelo estar de acuerdo con vos en política pero pareces que sos el tipo de comentador que me gusta escuchar a pesar de pensar diferente

  6. i dont watch this fool for reasons just like this video. so we are have candidates drop out over 8 months before the 1st primary because of polls. those same polls had hillary winning in a landslide in 2016. polls are not reliable or unbiased. they represent mainstream media coverage and hence sellouts like biden, harris and warren are doing well. pacman is a wannabe msnbc entertainer and nothing more

  7. I don't care if the people polling 2% drop out – but either Warren or Bernie should in order to further their shared agenda https://splinternews.com/the-bernie-warren-suicide-pact-to-save-america-1836189735

  8. I think when we have only eight candidates, it would be great, over two nights, two hours each night. I believe people(the total viewing audience) needs to get really familiar, and personal (and have a right and need) with the candidates as much as they can! Come on guys this is for the POTUS. What could be more serious for the next four years? This election will determine, the environmental, financial and overall future of the American people.

  9. If they can't make it to the third debate drop out. However there is already a lot of people who won't make it to the next and the third one.

  10. This is the worst podcast topic you’ve had yet. It’s way too early and how can you take these polls seriously? Cmon packman what are you doing?

  11. The answer is simple; they need to withdraw on their own and accept defeat. Its absolutely pathetic to see them still running and trying to slander their colleagues.

  12. If you haven't broken through the 2% line you should drop out before the years end. There's too many candidates. Everyone under 1% should drop out before the next debate.

    Edit: that's 9 candidates that I believe should drop out before the next debate. That leaves 11 candidates, they should be divided into two groups like the first round of debates, 10 was way too many still.

  13. I think everyone who didn't even qualify for the first two debates shouldn't be in the second debate, The zero percenters need to drop out now. Everyone on one percent and are close to the 130k donor requirements for the third debate should absolutely do the second debate. The two percenters should stay in for the second and third debates but be gone if theres no traction on their campaign by the time of the fourth debate

  14. Am I the only one who's a little suspecting of all the comments about Yang? Feels like a lot of puppet accounts.

    *paranoia intensifies*

  15. It is so so so early. We need some perspective here. No reason to drop out yet. Trump was under 5% at this moment in 2015. There are certainly obvious ppl with no chance. But there are plenty of 1-2% ppl who owe themselves an effort.

  16. Everybody that isn't Bernie Sanders and Biden should get out
    I want to watch Bernie destroy Biden on idea.

  17. Still cant get why this piece of shit biden is on #1. America if u do the same shit u did 2016 then ull be alone on this planet and ull destroy ur selves. smh #BERNIE2020 last chance

  18. I love your channel man but you should have put someone other than yang on the pic saying when is it time to drop out.

  19. The 5 percent cut should be applied . It does not matter that we are one year out from the convention . The primaries start in just a few month and the field needs to be focused on viable candidates .

  20. Kamalla harris won the debate. She was the loudest in the room, people listened to her, and she only came off slightly sounding like a B… But she doesn't win on policy for me. Fixing the ACA is not a good path forward. We pay 3x more than any other civilized country for healthcare, and the healthcare we recieve for that money is not even that great. It's not terrible… but for 50grand/day, you should have individual climate control, shiatsu beds, and no fewer than 6 full time employees in your rooms feeding you grapes, and sponging you clean… Think about it.

    No. For-Profit Medical rackiteering needs to end. We tried it the republican way, and the republican way does not work (and they've been doing everything they could to rip it back out anyway, don't ask me why) So now, lets fix healthcare the liberal way.

  21. Peckerman you waistin your customers time, you my friend will be spitting God emperors balls for the next six years.

  22. The people under 1% need to pull out and run for Senate AFTER the second debate. The debate will give them some name recognition, so they might be able to eek out a victory against their republican opponents. If under 2% you really just need to weigh your odds after the second debate.

  23. Is it possible Yang could make a run as an independent? He's not my pick but it would seem to suit him better.

  24. Let the debate requirements determine who stays in or out. If you can't make the debate requirements for the 3rd debate then the candidate should start thinking about dropping out.
    The requirements for the 5th debate will be harder. If you can't make those requirements the candidate should drop out.
    At some point you want the voters to start consolidating around just a couple of candidates and not split among 24 candidates or else the democrats will lose the presidential election.

  25. Not fair to Yang (and obviously not supportive) that this video starts with the question "When is it time to drop out?" and an image of Yang's face but nobody else's. Yang just made a qualifying poll for the September debates and polled in 6th. He's 1 of only 7 on track for the fall debates. Unsubscribed.

  26. Correct. Need more depth in the debates. 20 people is too many for candidates to have time to explain policy details.
    It is still early. OK to let low polling candidates have time in the 2nd debate to show what they can do.

  27. Really looking forward to Andrew Yang's first debate when the field trims down and we get that substantive format you mentioned.

  28. If they're mostly polling old folks who still use land lines (Biden supporters), then the polls really don't say much about who's most likely to win, or who should drop-out. Yang has got this. My $1000 bucks per month is on the way!

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  31. Everyone needs a chance to make a change. Polls are not interesting, it's the way they are able to convince the people. If they don't quit now immediately…maybe…just maybe that will be the right person for the difficult task they're trying to get. They know what s*** they are going to clean up. They are apparently very committed…that requires effort

  32. I totally agree with you David. The fact that Amy K did better than Kirsten Gillibrand is ludicrous. Same goes with Beto vs Castro or Tulsi. I think everyone under 2% is wasting their time and wasting people's money that are donating out of kindness and trying to help in a fruitless effort. I think this debate at the end of July should have demanded candidates meet both criteria. The poll position and the donation threshold together. That would see three or four immediately be disqualified. Although I don't understand why Kirsten is doing any worse than a group of these people polling ahead of her. Booker, Castro, Beto, and Amy of course – Inslee, Bennett and Hickenlooper? Really? Even Yang has done nothing above and beyond what she has. She in fact has had several strong moments since announcing and yet is ignored while Amy is looked at seriously by anyone? Very strange results that I wouldn't have thought would turn out this way when the candidates first announced. I'm not supporting Gillibrand but I think she's done a fair job compared to many others who shouldn't even register on the polls.

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  34. Even if Yang doesn't get the nomination, him being in the race spreads awareness of UBI…he needs to stay

  35. Many of them are running for Vice. Staying in the race for a bit would help the name recognition aspect.

  36. Anyone under 5% needs to get out. They are wasting their and more importantly our time by taking depth and substance out of the debates, between their unpopular positions and the sheer number of them. Let the people hear from the 5 front runners.

  37. This entire group of DIMM candidates is nothing but a CLOWN SHOW- One debate (two nights) down— and it looked like a SNL sketch…It was embarrassing with all the straight up pandering, butchering of the Spanish language and socialist elitist CRAP they spewed! Not one of these DIMMS have a prayer to unseat TRUMP in 2020. Each subsequent DIMM debate will serve to further expose these CLOWNS as out of touch with the American Voters, and be one step closer to re-electing TRUMP!!!!!!!!!

  38. idk, they make Bernie and Warren look better..
    but id say if you havent a whole single point to your candidacy then youre already out, you just havent done it yet..

  39. I feel like majority of the candidates are just competing for who can get the most applause. Say shit that just sounds goods. Not hearing how they will tackle the problems but just saying things like "we fix homelessness!!!" or whatever issue is the topic. Great. How?

    Andrew yang has the #MATH and the solutions.

  40. So, only the "name brand" faces who are familiar to the uninformed public get to stay? This is disgusting. Forget about policy positions, name recognition trumps all, apparently. The primitive human brain is still drawn to surface level comfort, and will discard any deeper data that might reveal relevant truths in favor of a face that they literally just happen to already have become familiarized with. We have a strong tendency to favor that which we see or hear first, regarding any subject, and to stick with that first set of data no matter what. This anchoring effect is exploited relentlessly by msm for elections and to influence public opinion on whatever other issues that their benefactors wish. Fuck this place.

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  42. Has anyone ever been apart of these polls?

    Serious question. Lol

    I’m 37 years old. Myself and No one I know has ever been part of these pre election polls. Shit I’ve never even participated or been asked to participate in an exit poll.

  43. Honestly, we won't know anything until the 2nd debate. The first debate was a MESS! We shouldn't be judging ANYTHING off of that. Yang will get a chance to redeem himself, Kamala will probably get called a hypocrite, Bidens memory will slip even more, people won't be over-speaking as much, and Mike Gravel will be on stage for the first time (game changer). So let's not get ahead of ourselves, everything could flip quickly.

  44. We are so far away from the convention as you say. Let's not focus so heavy on polling. Why can't we narrow it down based on if they have anything of value? If you are a parrot of one of the top candidates get out but if you have real and different ideas keep talking.

  45. It is still very early. A lot can change. What if Biden drops out next week due to health or family issues? Who would pick up those voters. Most people do not even know who 1/2 the candidates are or what they stand for. The candidates should have the opportunity to be heard and for people to get to know them. Most people are not that up on politics and won't decide until much later. They don't need to decide until right before their state's primary. This is very premature to talk about bowing out at this point, unless the candidate wants to pursue something else, such as a Senate run.

  46. I donated to Yang after reading his book "The War on Normal People", I believe there is a free audiobook version on Youtube somewhere. A must read. The first politician I ever donated to.

  47. Let the debate requirements do the narrowing. The July debate is one last chance for the candidates under 1-ish percent to get their message out and try to gain traction. That is good. But anybody who can't meet the September requirements should get out before that September debate. This will probably leave 8-12 candidates, who can continue for the future. (Biden, Bernie, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, Beto, Booker, Yang, maybe Gabbard, maybe Castro, maybe Klobuchar, and possibly another couple if they catch on in the July debates.) Then we can get to know each candidate better, and they can spread their messages. By Iowa it should be narrowed down to 6 or 7 candidates.

  48. So basically by saying this you only want popular candidates with brand/name recognition. How is this progressive? You essentially want to keep politics for the elites. This is a bad idea. As long as they meet the requirements, let them keep going. Otherwise why even have requirements?

  49. You can't beat the establishment candidates because the political parties favor them. All the outlying candidates are just there for show, part of the democracy illusion. Yang never had a real chance. Tulsi never had a real chance. Bernie had a chance in 2016, but the Democratic party took him out at the end. They'll do the same thing again, if he gets as far. The only reason Trump won the Republican nomination is because he was a national celebrity, and he wasn't a threat to corporations. His ability to win the nomination was directly linked to his pre-existing celebrity status. Think about the futility here for a second: Bernie Sanders is trying to win the nomination of a party that doesn't want him to be nominated. Even if by miracle he won the nomination, and the presidency, corporations would just turn Congress against him if he threatened their interests. Another government shutdown. Checks and balances are a tool to maintain the status quo. This is all just a game, and I feel like a lot of people just get off on playing it.

  50. folks asking 5% or less to drop out are just folks who forgot to consider just how early we are in the process. The current standard to stay in the debate is fine the way it is! They have pro to come up with those stats for a reason. Asking everyday people about a topic they know very little about is like asking random person how to fix your car!

  51. Yang is doing exactly what’s right. Small donations from real people. Giving solutions rather than drama ridden anecdotes. Go Yang!

  52. Generally low pollers should exit "unless" their message is rather unique. So for instance am intrigued by Marianne Williamson's approach as a much needed meta-level antidote to political policy nerds like you. While for Warren feel her message is much if not vitally neede so even if low polling go the distance.

  53. I hope your grandkids like hot weather and never ending wars in the Middle East. You had a chance to vote for Inslee and Gabbard, but did not. Good luck!

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