The Problem with Political Predictions – Between the Scenes | The Daily Show


– Do I have predictions for the midterms? I hate predicting things. I’ll be honest with you, I think a lot of America’s predicting I think hurts its elections because a lot of it seems
like a foregone conclusion because of the predictions. So, the prediction was
that Hillary would win, so I think a lot of
people were like, “Meh, what’s the point?” I feel like elections should have nothing. There should never be a prediction. I don’t think there should
be polls, to be honest. I think the polls should be something that is only accessible to campaigns so that they can run what they’re doing, but I don’t think we should
know who’s up and who’s down. Why does that affect your votes? Do you know what I mean? Why are you voting because
someone is winning or losing? That’s a weird… You should be voting because you believe in
somebody’s platform or not as opposed to saying how
you doing over there? How you doing? I’ll vote, are you winning? No, you don’t get my vote, no. Oh, you need it? Now you get my vote. Wait, you don’t need it? No. You know I mean? So, I can’t predict anything, nor do I wish to predict anything. I just hope the people come out and vote ’cause I think for a long time a lot of Americans were
just like, “Yeah, elections? Like, whatever. That’s, like, so tedious.” I remember when I would hear Americans talk about an election. It would be so crazy. People would just be like,
“Yeah, I mean, I’ll see. Like, who do you even vote for? It’s all the same, right?” That’s what people said
about Trump and Hillary. Remember that? Like, “To be honest, it’s all the same. Is it any different?” And now it’s like, “Oh,
yeah, it’s different.” (laughing) “Yeah, it is, like, totally different.” If it was Jurassic Park, it would basically be like
somebody going, “Okay, who do we want on the loose, the bad guy from Jurassic
Park or the dinosaurs?” And someones like, “It’s all the same.” And then the T-rex is like (yelling) and you’re like, “It’s not the same!” ‘Cause it is not the same. It genuinely is not the same.
(clapping) Obama spoiled a lot of people because of how competent he was. You know what I mean? Yeah, it’s like the guy was… It’s like imagine if America’s an airplane and Obama was a pilot and he was just one of those swaggy pilots that’s got everything
under control, you know? Just be like, “Ladies and
gentlemen, your pilot here, Obama. We’re at 20,000 feet heading up to 25. Should be good.” And then even when there’d
be a bump, he’d be like, “Now, folks, don’t worry about that. Just a bit of a bump.” And everyone was in the back like, you wanna check the safety briefing? And they’re like “No, I
don’t care, I don’t care.” And then the election
came and people were like, “Who’s gonna fly now?” And then some lady
stood up and she’s like, “I’ve been practicing my whole life.” And people are like, “A
lady can’t fly a plane! Meh, what if she has her period, meh! Meh! We need a man.” And some drunk dude stood up
and he’s like, “I can fly. I can fly this plane so
fast, so far, so fast.” And people were like, “Yeah,
that’s what this plane needs, someone who’s never flown before, yeah! That’s what I need.” And then he got in the cockpit
and then it’s just like… And then Obama was like,
“Alright, everybody, I’m out,” and he jumped out with his parachute. (laughing) And then the pilot on
the plane, he was like, “Alright, folks, time to shake things up.” And now everyone’s
like, “Where’s the exit? How does this work again?” (upbeat music)




Comments
  1. ‘A lady can’t fly a plane! Maaaah what if she has her period MAAAAH’ about fell off the couch with that one! His apathetic white dude impressions were also perfect. Obligatory ‘more between the scenes please’

  2. Hilarious as this is, Trevor’s argument here is also 100% dead on_. The discouragement people had from the 2016 predictions making them not vote was _exactly what happened. And it’s not the first time. It happened again the last time an election was that close, in 2000. The exact same problem happened with Bush vs. Gore.

  3. Buhahahahahaa this was one of the funniest and perfect analogies ever. Just imagining this is hilarious and his impressions are always spot on.

  4. Sure, someboddy asked that question, and that wasn't scripted.
    I mean, I know it is and that it's obvious, but this doesn't look good, to me. Like "oh what do I think about voter supression? I'll tell you…" It's just a bit cringey innit?
    But the other way would have been fun, poiting out the fact that it's not a real conversation, like "oh what do I think about voter supression very real person that totally exists? I'll tell you…"
    I don't know

  5. Video starts out with some racist-ass mocking of white people. Then it turns into a pity party, crying about the presidential election.

  6. Trevor seems to have bad memory. Obama was a disappointment and Hillary was a terrible candidate. The fact that Trump makes them both look like the best candidate and president ever, is no excuse.

  7. Germany has polls, and Germany has 75% turnout numbers. The polls are not the reason Americans don't vote. It is just that they suck at democracy.

  8. Why would anyone want an inexperienced person for the most powerful job in the world..? Still boggles me. I know the answers, the arguments… but still. It's so mind-numbingly stupid

  9. Polls are useful because the voting system is limited, you have to compromise (and select a more popular candidate if yours can't possibly win) because you can only express one name, if you could just order the candidates by preferences, you wouldn't have to care about what other people are going to chose.

    of course, in the american elections it's not even that useful, because of the very limited set of choices.

  10. He missed the point in the end tho. Hillary lost because she can't really inspire people with her speeches, doesn't really believe in anything like Bernie, she is all marketing and her slogan felt like the world revolves around her interests The Jurassic park metaphor was much better

  11. Perfect example! We're still on the plane, spiraling out of control. We either hit a mountain or the ocean…either way it's all doom and its coming soon.

  12. This was truly amazing to watch! Trevor could have been an announcer in the days of radio only and had a great career, he's got story telling down pat!

  13. Maybe for the US where there are largely just two parties predictions hurt voting habits, but that is not universally the case. For example, in Canada (or most of Europe) there are multiple left-leaning parties and one right-leaning. If I see a poll that the liberals are winning, I might vote for them, even if they aren't my first choice, just to prevent a vote-split. In that kind of voting information for the voters about voters is very important.

  14. Agreed 100%. Think about Jury Duty, where you're not allowed to watch the news or interact with the outside world whilst making your decision. Arguably voting is an EVEN MORE important and serious decision. HOWEVER, there ARE times when polls CAN and SHOULD change how one votes, especially in 2 or 3 party systems and such. Recent election in Canada is a great example. 2 of the parties had platforms that were similar enough that aside from a few differences (which COULD be key for a lot of ppl) for many people i suspect they were essentially the same, its like "YEA A is mostly better than B, but all in all they're basically the same". HOWEVER, the THIRD party was MARKEDLY different, and from a liberal left-leaning standpoint can be seen as a threat to the wellbeing of the provinces future. IN THAT SENSE it makes SENSE to look at the polls, most liberal/left leaning people wouldn certainly have a preference between NDP and LIberal Party but their BIGGEST concern would be to ensure the Conservatives DO NOT get elected. So IF used intelligently (which unfortunately it wasn't) polls would be a nice way of bringing the votes together. Like, if i saw a lot of ppl were voting NDP, I'd vote NDP and urge others who think like me to do the same JUST to ensure that the "people in the left" aren't split between NDP and liberal…which is what ended up happening, this resulting in a conservative win. Honestly most ppl who voted both NDP and liberal would agree that a conservative govt would be the LAST thing they wanted…changing decision based on polls in this case makes perfect sense. IF everybody who "wanted a non conservative govt" just voted for the popular party that would have ensured whichever of NDP or Liberal was the popular one would have won the majority…rather than have the majority split between 2 parties thus giving conservative the default win.

  15. Jumbo jet engine Boeing 747 full of passengers and crew & fuel…
    Free falling fast !!!!🤬😱🤯😰😫😭🤮
    #BRACEFORIMPACTAMERICA

  16. Being not an american I don't hear trump except, maybe, a tiny sound bite on the news and then the other day I was watching a stephen colbert video where they showed a clip of trump talking and I thought "hold shit, that guy does a great trevor noah impression".

  17. DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE DON'T BOO — VOTE

  18. So basically, Obama was just the best president ever, Hillary lost because everyone is sexist and trump won because everyone is dumb and doesn't know how to vote even though he is the favorite to win in 2020 because of his track record, so why not everyone just have late night talk show hosts lecture us about how to vote and what opinions we should have and everything will be just fine.

    It will be so juicy and delicious when it happens all over again in 2020 but these people will still not learn their lesson.

  19. Trevor, imo you Really nailed it there. Wonderfull description of America's current situation. Although Obama has not really jumped out of the plane but more like got back to his seat in first class hehe.

  20. I like his brain and point of view..a lot..I could listen to him all day..Being good looking does not hurt too.

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