Mapping Boris Johnson’s Brexit election gamble | FT

OK, Here we go. Ready? Yeah. Election 2019. The Paths to Power. So Robert, we now all have the
general election that we’ve been so looking forward to. What do you think of it so far? I’ve been enjoying it so far. It’s only a day. So, so far it’s been all right. Yes, barely 24 hours in. Yes, I think we’re all fairly
confident at last that we have, if not a resolution that
there’s a plan for a resolution for the starters. So… So if not the beginning
of the end, then maybe the end of the beginning. Yes, or the beginning
of the beginning. Or the beginning
of the beginning. So we’re going to
try, because there’s no sense in which prediction
is a mug’s game in politics these days, we’re going
to try and take us through some of the
potential outcomes. Yeah. And I think you
think there’s mainly those can be bulked into three
potential election results. And then where that ends us
in terms of the Brexit story. Yeah, I think that’s right. Three most likely
election results, one is a Conservative victory. OK, shall we make that blue? Yeah. Where are we going… where
are we going to end this up? How about there? OK. OK. A Conservative party
victory is one option. This is outright majority. Outright majority, yes. …that was lost in 2017. The second option, clearly most
people think is less likely, but nonetheless,
a Labour victory. OK. Can I have the red pen, please? Thank you very much. I’ll keep the black pen now. OK. Yeah. And the third one’s
a hung parliament. OK. I don’t think either of us
believe that Liberal Democrats are going to sweep to victory. So these are the three
fundamental options. And each one of them has
a path to how we get there and significant
roadblocks in the way. Very few people vote for a hung
parliament, but it is a very, very realistic outcome… many
people think the most likely outcome. Because both of the main parties
have serious challenges… Absolutely. …in trying to get a majority,
which is what we’re going to try and explain a bit today. But obviously, Boris Johnson
has been saying for some weeks now that he’s desperate
to have this election. So why is he going for
it if it’s such a gamble? And what are the pitfalls
in terms of trying to gain that majority? It is an astonishing gamble. When you think about
what is at stake for him, he would become, if he lost, the
shortest serving prime minister in the last 100 years, the third
shortest serving prime minister ever. Brexit, which apparently
was his life’s mission, would be thrown into real doubt. You know, it might not happen
at all because of a referendum. And if it did happen, it’d
be a very different Brexit to the kind the Brexiters want. So massive risks here. He would have to
secure, essentially, what is the third Tory
election victory in a row. That doesn’t happen often. He’s got no majority
in them, which means he’s got to
gain seats at a time when we know there are places
where he’s going to lose them. Why has he gone for it? I think because they’ve
made the calculation that if they can’t get
the deal through quickly that their next best
bet is to make Brexit the subject of this
election and to set up this people versus parliament
election, and say, look, we were going to do
what you asked us to do, but parliament wouldn’t let us. He’s very worried about the
Brexit party, Nigel Farage’s party. And he thinks he has
more chance against them if there aren’t months and
months of delay and compromise on Brexit now. So if Johnson succeeds – blue
pen – in getting his majority. There he is on election night. What does he do next? This is the scenario
in which he wins and he carries on
with his Brexit plan. Well, if he wins, I think
it’s quite straightforward. He pushes Brexit through. I have heard people
talk about how we’ll have Brexit on January the 1st. That seems to be a little bit
ambitious in the formation of a new parliament. But in January no
further extensions. He’s got a majority, and
we have a Tory government. That’s easy. But, as we know, there are
lots of sort of roadblocks. I’m going to put little crosses
for roadblocks in the way. OK. OK. So roadblock one is
the Brexit party. We know, there you go,
you’re going to tussle me. Well, no, I mean,
it’s absolutely true. So it seems to me he’s actually
got problems on several fronts. He’s really vulnerable to the
Lib Dems in areas of the UK where Remain is
strong, and also where the sort of traditional
Tory message of – the traditional
Tory message of sort of stability and prosperity
– has been really disrupted by them being such
enthusiastic Brexiters. So he’s vulnerable to the Lib
Dems in the south of England. If he’s losing those seats, he’s
got to pick them up elsewhere. He thinks he’s going to pick up
all these seats from the Labour party in the north of
England, in the Midlands. He kind of needs to
do that to compensate. The Brexit party, if
they stand against him, could really mess it up for him. But they’ve gone quite quiet. They have. So are they still biding
their time, do we think? Or do we think they’ve realised
that the Brexit side that will win in this election,
either Remain or Leave, will have to be the
side that’s most united? I mean, I think it’s a massive
question for Nigel Farage. But essentially
there is only one way that we are guaranteed Brexit
after the general election, and that is a
Conservative victory. That is the only path
that guarantees Brexit. And if Nigel Farage
stands and runs a good campaign against
him, his primary achievement will be to throw
Brexit into doubt. So it’s a massive question. But if you go through this…
you take the Liberal Democrats. You’re absolutely right. They’re a huge threat
to the Conservatives in certain places. There are some seats in
London and in the south, which the Conservatives have
effectively given up on holding, because they
know the Lib Dems are going to take those seats off them. St Albans, maybe
Cheltenham, some in London, you know, Richmond Park. There’s quite a lot actually. These are places where
the Tories know the Lib Dems are likely to beat them. I’m just going to add one here. OK, add another. I’m just going to add the SNP. The SNP, yes, good point. So in the Lib Dems,
they know there’s a lot of places
they’ve got to run. Most of Lib Dem target seats
are Conservative seats. And a lot of them
are very vulnerable. I think the Tories have
essentially written those off, more or less, already. They’ll try and pull a few
back so the Lib Dems don’t make quite the inroads they expect. But they’ve more or
less written them off. Their strategy is to take the
seats of Labour, as you said. The problem with
the Brexit party is not that I think that it can
win many, or indeed any, seats, but that in an election
where there are four parties, it doesn’t need to do
much to be a spoiler. Take Wolverhampton South West. It was Enoch Powell’s
seat back in the day. The Tory party lost it to
Labour a few elections back. Labour still holds it. It’s got a majority
of about 2,100. So an absolute prime target
seat, a seat the Tories absolutely have to
take, a real homeland of the Conservative
working class vote. Yes. Exactly the target they expect
to take off the Labour party. If the Brexit party go in there
and take a few thousand votes, that could be the difference. It could make it
too hard to call, if those votes for Labour,
votes that the Tories needed or whatever. So it throws it all
up into the air. And the Brexit party can
be the massive spoilers for Boris Johnson
in this election. So I think we agree then. It’s not that we’re
expecting the Brexit party, if they run an
aggressive campaign, to pick up loads of MPs. It’s that they could
mess things up. Absolutely. As for Boris. And I think that’s why they’re
holding back at the moment. Yes. And I think the Tories’ whole
strategy is taking those Labour seats, some of which
look very vulnerable, some of which look
a stretch to me. If they lose as many
seats to the Lib Dems as we sort of think
they’re going to. It’s a big question mark for me. And, as you said,
Scotland as well. If they lose most
of their 13 seats. Thirteen, they’ve got. So you’ve got 13
Scottish Tories. Yeah, and we think it can
be down to three possibly. Yeah. So even on a generous
estimate, they’ lose, say, 20 to 25 seats
between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats. They’ve then got to pick up
40-odd seats from Labour that they didn’t win last time,
when, it’s worth remembering, Theresa May got 42
per cent of the vote. So it’s a big, big ask. And it’s a real problem
for Boris Johnson. Then the other thing
is he wants to win the whole election talking
about Brexit and delivery. And the more the other
parties can get him off it, the more problematic
it is for him. So this little person
here, that I’ve drawn here, in his charming flat
cap, he is supposed to be a kind of stereotypical
northern, Brexit-voting, white, working class chap
over the age of 60. Is he? OK. … – who is Tory – I thought that very clear. He is the person that the Tory
party has decided they need to get onside in order to
win all these Labour seats. They’re calling him
Workington Man, another one of these unbelievably
insulting sorts of monikers that party politics chooses
for their target voter. Yeah. But the crucial
thing is Workington is a town in Cumbria. It’s a fairly marginal
Labour-held seat and very Brexity. Yeah. So they think they can get
all these people to vote Tory, even if they… Even if they’ve spent their
whole lives hating the Tories. Exactly, which, I mean, I
have to say, even with Brexit as this very disruptive
force in British politics, I think that’s a big ask. And that’s where the Brexit
party is so interesting because it is also possible
there is an upside to them standing. But who the hell knows
which way it goes? Which is they take
those Labour votes, that those Leave voters who
can’t bring themselves to vote Conservative vote
for the Brexit party. The Labour vote goes
down, Tory vote goes up, and somehow it still works. So that’s why this election
is going to be so very, very difficult to call and why
the national polls are going to be so immensely unhelpful. But I want to go on to
the Labour party now. Can I just say one
thing on the numbers? Yes. OK. Because what you’ve described
that’s so interesting is that at every constituency level,
you could have some kind of four-way fight,
effectively – Tories, Labour, and the Brexit party – Tories,
Labour, and the Lib Dems – Tories, Labour, and the SNP,
or any other sort of mixture of those, which means you could
get a lot of constituencies that you can gain on about 30
per cent of the vote locally. Exactly right, yeah. …because the rest of
the vote is so split. So it’s really unpredictable. So I think the
number one message is, pay no attention to
national opinion polls. Don’t pay too much
attention because they’re going to be misleading. OK, can we have a go at
what Labour need to do. Because obviously, in 2017,
with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm, a lot of us said, you know,
Labour has absolutely no chance. And May started off with an
even more healthy lead in 2017 than Johnson’s got now in
terms of the national polls. But Labour made a lot of
progress during the course of the campaign. And clearly, they would hope
to do that again and get over the line. Yeah. To me, the big unknown in this
election is the Labour party because it’s very easy to
explain why it will all go horribly wrong for Labour. It’s very easy to explain that. People are sick
of Jeremy Corbyn. He’s peaked. They’ve seen through him. They’re nowhere in
the opinion polls. This time, Remain voters
have got a more Remainy option to choose, which
is the Liberal Democrats. There’s all kinds of
reasons why this could, and maybe even should,
go wrong for Labour. But the idea that Labour is
going to end this election at 22 per cent, 23 per cent
in the opinion polls seems ridiculous to me. Yes, quite. So they will go up. They will build support. They will go up. They are good at campaigns. Furthermore, in most of
the key battlegrounds, whether it’s about
Brexit or something else, the choice is Labour
or Conservative. So in most seats, those are the
first and second place parties. So… So I put this that, you
know, the bumps in the road. Yeah. I’ve put the Corbyn factor
because the leadership is a big problem
for lots of people. And he’s got record
low approval ratings. Not Remain enough. Absolutely. Or do we think also not Leave
enough for other people or… Possibly. But I think if you are
so obsessed with Brexit. Brexit is the number
one issue for you, the only thing that matters, and
leaving is the only thing that matters, then fundamentally,
you shouldn’t vote Labour. You should vote Tory
or vote Brexit party. It’s your prime consideration. What I think is
interesting, though, there are all those people, all
these leave voters who don’t regret their decision, but
for whom Brexit is not actually the number one issue. Quite. Yes. I totally agree. There were reasons that
made them vote Brexit. It wasn’t Brexit in itself. And Labour’s whole strategy in
this election is going to be talk about Brexit as
little as possible. It’s got a position. Our position is, we’re
still trying to Brexit. We’re still trying
to get you a deal. But we’re going to
give you a choice. And that choice will include
Remain, so don’t worry. Now, let’s talk about the
National Health Service. So in fact, their
campaign probably will be don’t mention Europe. Exactly. And they’ve got a lot of
policies and a lot of messages, which I think lots
of people have a lot of problems with their
answers to these questions. But the questions
they’re asking are ones that resonate with people. Why is society so unfair? Why does it feel so loaded
against ordinary people? Why are my public
services not good enough? Why aren’t the rich
paying enough taxes? All these… why don’t I have more
control over my life? And on all these… and
really, importantly, what are we going to do about
the environment and climate change threat? And on all these issues,
Labour has a clear position. And I think it’s built up
quite a clever patchwork quilt of policies to appeal
to a lot of people. And I think the more this
election goes on, the more it gets off Brexit, the better
Labour’s chances are going to be. I agree. What about the
battlegrounds, though? Because I would say that Labour
has got the same problem that the Tories have in one
sense, which is the SNP. Because the Labour
party, traditionally, where they’ve got a majority
in the House of Commons is because they’ve had an army
of Scottish Labour MPs. Well, they’ve never won without
winning in England, have they? No. But it’s very important,
that battleground, to them. Absolutely, yeah. And now, the Scottish
fight has become, you know, we’ve got
left-right politics. We’ve got the Brexit divide. In Scotland, it’s also
way more complicated because this is a massive
opportunity for the SNP to sweep the board and argue
their case for being allowed a second independence
referendum. So Labour will, I would
say, really struggle to make the numbers for a majority
because of Scotland. I would agree, which takes us,
I think, to this point, which is the hung parliament
again, that actually, the serious possibility we
could have this election and be back, more or less,
where we are now. Yay. Now, the SNP, essentially,
in terms of formation of government, the SNP goes
into the Labour column. It’s not going to put the
Tories back into power. It will be prepared to put
the Labour party into power. Absolutely, particularly
if they’re offered their independence
referendum now. In terms of getting a Labour
coalition government together the SNP seats are almost
fungible with Labour in that sense. So the question then is,
could they… could Labour… So OK, so in fact, we can bring
the SNP’s strength down here as a factor in a hung
parliament, couldn’t we? Absolutely. I mean, the whole
Tory message… I was talking to
somebody the other day. He said, our message is going
to be vote Farage, get Corbyn. And then he stopped
for a second. Then it’s going to be
vote Swinson, get Corbyn. And actually, vote
Sturgeon, get Corbyn. This is partly a fact
because the Conservatives have no natural coalition
partners, of course. Yeah. They have way fewer options. Probably none, now, in fact,
having sold out the DUP. The DUP, yeah. So actually, the moment
Boris Johnson doesn’t have a majority, obviously, A,
we’re into a hung parliament, assuming Labour
doesn’t win, and B, there’s probably
only one outcome. Because there’s
only one coalition that can be assembled. And it’s not a Tory one. Now, I suppose
there’s a point where he’s so close to a majority
that he could still run with a minority
government, but that doesn’t solve the issue
of getting Brexit through. So here’s the question
in terms of Brexit. So if you’re in this
territory again, and you’ve got Labour
as the largest party, we assume it’ll do some sort
of governing deal with the SNP in exchange for a second
independence referendum in Scotland. But the SNP and the Lib Dems,
who may be up to a much more substantive number of MPs if
their campaign goes well… and that will be a pure
Remain campaign as well. The Lib Dems and the SNP will
want Labour to dump Brexit. Or at the very,
very least, they’ll want that second referendum
in an active Remain campaign. It’s weird to me. I mean, you’ve gone a stage
further than some people would go, which is talking about
Labour as the largest party. But assuming that the
numbers allowed a Labour… But it’s possible, right? Of course its possible yeah. A Labour, SNP, Lib Dem
grouping to take power, which clearly is possible. Well, you wouldn’t
even need that. You’d need Labour and the SNP,
and the Lib Dems could just give it.. With the Liberal
Dems’ acquiescence. … a nod in some way. I mean, I think, given that
the Labour position has been to renegotiate a deal
rather than just scrap it, I don’t think Labour
could scrap Brexit. But what the SNP and the Lib
Dems could do is say to Labour, OK, we want the most
minimalist Brexit now. We want the full… we
want the Norway option, stay in the single market,
stay in the customs union, put it to a referendum. But I think Jeremy Corbyn
would pay that price as the price of power. The question is whether the
Lib Dems could allow him to be the prime minister, having
gone so publicly on the record to say they couldn’t. I think then they’d have no
choice if Labour insisted on it. Well, they’d rule
out a coalition. But a coalition is one thing,
and allowing somebody to govern is another. So you could have a
second referendum, which, in fact, ends
up with something like Norway-plus versus Remain. Yeah, I think you
absolutely could, certainly customs union versus Remain. Right. I think if we end up
in a hung parliament then a referendum is
very, very, very likely, even if the Tories
are the largest party because people are
going to say, how do we cut this cord? How do we get through this? At some point, you have to
say, the only way through this is to take Brexit out of the
hands of the political parties that patently can’t handle it. I’ll just come back to
the Tory victory point there, by the way. Because the other thing, I
think, that we didn’t discuss is although Boris Johnson
has a pitch, which is I’m trying to
get things done, I’m trying to get this
country moving again, they’ve been in power in one
form or another since 2010. They’ve been in power on
their own for three years. They have achieved very
little in three years, except division, doubt,
and an absolute shambles at Westminster. It is quite possible that voters
will just look at them and say, you lot, you’ve had your
go, and you’ve messed it up. And if Labour get motoring with
we are the campaign for change, we’re the party for change, I
think Boris Johnson could be on the back foot very quickly. So this is an enormous
gamble on his part. And it could very
easily go wrong. So basically, we’re saying, is
he fighting the Brexit election that he wants to fight? Or is he defending
nine, nearly 10 years of Conservative government
and all the problems that that brings with it? I think that’s absolutely right. And I think… the other thing
you have to remember with election campaigns is,
in terms of the coverage, in terms of what people
want to talk about, in terms of what the
media want to do, we do not want to talk
about Brexit for five weeks. There’s just not that
much more to say. It is possible to change the
story very quickly by talking about, we’re saving the planet. We are re-orderising capitalism. We are making a fairer society. We’re going to give the
railways back to you. These are strong arguments. And they make for more
interesting news headlines. And so I think if the
Conservative party strategists think that this route was
the second-best option after getting a deal,
then all I can say is I’d hate to have
seen the third route. So I think, in fact, whereas
as we start this campaign, we’re looking at a really
fractured set of polls. It seems as if
everything’s up for grabs. It’s actually quite
possible that we see some sort of
action replay of 2017, where, although it was
billed as a Brexit election, it turned out to
not be the Brexit election because domestic
policies disrupted the whole thing. And we also saw that, despite
the underlying fracturing, there was a massive
squeeze on the Lib Dems. And you actually saw a lot
of people voting either Tory or Labour. That’s right. And I think the Lib Dems
have got a very interesting question, because up until
now, Jo Swinson’s policy has been to say, we will not
put Jeremy Corbyn in power. And she’s saying
that because she knows most of her key
targets are Tories. Her top targets are Tory seats. She knows Tory voters won’t
want to put Jeremy Corbyn back. But she also doesn’t want to
be in government with him. But that’s also
true, a fair point. But at some point, if the
election goes a certain way, she might have to
actually have to start asking the different question,
answering a different question, which is well, you
say you’re not going to put Jeremy Corbyn in power. Does that mean you’re going
to let Boris Johnson carry on? Because at some point, this
squeeze that you’re talking about, the fact the voters
instinctively know there really are only two prime ministerial
candidates in this contest means they’re going to start
asking… if they’re really, really anti-Conservative,
they’re going to start asking, well, if I vote for you, am I
actually putting Boris Johnson back by mistake, just as, at
the moment, people will say, if I vote for you, will
you put Jeremy Corbyn in? At some point, if the
Labour party gain ground, people might start to say,
well, hang on a minute. I don’t want Boris back. So she’s… it’s the classic trap for the
Lib Dems, and she’s as in it as any of her predecessors. What a wonderful set of
choices lie before us, Robert. Yes. I think we’re going to
have to keep this map and start marking
up the roadblocks as we get further along.

  1. Boris Johnson is not to be trusted….the only real Brexit we are going to get will be with The Brexit Party. ….think on he's not to be trusted !

  2. It Was a master stroke from Farage, doing the Trump interview at the start of the election campaign, I also heard that Trump after this interview held his ground in conversations with downing street and gave Boris a big pill to swallow on how he feels about his deal.
    BORIS DEAL IS NOT BREXIT, so voting for Brexit party is not splitting the vote, I am very confident that when the leavers and people on the middle ground are informed by the very well funded Brexit party of what is actually in Boris's treaty over the next few weeks their 10-12 point lead will be decimated and labour will be finished as they have lost the working class vote almost completely now.

    Even Rees-Mogg who I liked backed this disgrace of a treaty. I will never ever vote for the conservatives or Labour again unless Nigel Farage tells me to because of a pact. I gave Boris 50 50 when he became Prim Minister but him and the rest of the conservatives only care about there party and not the people or democracy, we need a parliament clean out. I'm Voting Brexit Party all the way now.

  3. These two are going to look pretty foolish on election day. Remember the US media telling the world that Clinton had an unassailable 90% support. They convinced no one except themselves. Echo chambers tend to work that way.

  4. Boris must think leave voters believe his dodgy treaty is a good deal. As a leave voter I'd rather risk a labour government than vote for that after all the Tory lies.

  5. Anyone who vote for Farage will ruin the Brexit totally. Farage is a 100% gambler and a direct USA agent. It is a destruction for this country. He is not even a good leader either. He established UKIP and then left it and now blaming others for his failure. What a destructive leader is he… I can see what he did with Brexit party. He just a business man, he found Brexit a good investment. He bet United Kingdom in front of his failure. I believe Brexit Party is 100% destruction for this great country. Please think 100 time before voting them.

  6. I don't care about Brexit. I've wanted a progressive Labour government all my life. Today We have a Labour Party with a progressive left agenda. Like Bernie sanders in the USA, corbyn is a politician of and for the workers. Those of us who have not struggled as much as our fellow Britons need to show we are in solidarity with uber workers, Morrison workers, nurses, social and care workers and teachers who have seen their work load increase and their wages stagnant. I never trusted new labour with their income support provisions that put the burden on tax payers as opposed to big corporations. I have never seen the tories as a party of the majority, the tory government are composed of old moneyed mogg types who are averse to the unwashed masses, cruel traditionalists like D raab types, stupid chancers like javid and pritti, libertarian misfits like Boris and classical cons like may and Kenny. The lib Dems are socially liberal so they like gays and blacks but not if they are too needy. The libs have their hands in the dirty business of neoliberalism which has caused the most destruction. You need only to look at the cruel voting record of its leader jo swinson and others to understand their feeling regarding the working poor and those on benefits. So in my humble opinion. We, the majority, have one chance of saving our nation and our humanity. #votecorbyn because he wants to help us, all of us. He wants to turn our country into a beacon of hope it can be. A vote for Labour is a vote for a caring uk which treats all its citizens as equal, wanted, needed and essential. A Uk which gives a voice to all its people. A green and bright United Kingdom.

  7. Conservatives are simply wrong for politics.
    The science behind the political brain shows why conservatives lack moral compass.
    Without sufficient capacity for processing critical the , the individual becomes AMORAL .
    And the more the individual goes to the right, the less intelligent the individual.

    Google conservative VS liberal brain.

  8. Stop calling it a brexit gamble. It is a "whole country & everyone's life gamble". He risked your children's lives too if you have any, cheery people

  9. If you believe in your Country vote for Brexit, vote for the Brexit Party. The main Parties have consistently lied to us and they will continue to do so. If you vote on Party lines, as in the past we will end up exactly where we are now, only of course we will stay in the EU forever.
    The media (as indicated by this video) are remain orientated, don't listen to this rubbish, the Tory Deal is a remain deal, it does not represent leave in any shape, or form.

  10. Can anyone give feedback on the following :
    If you want a communist anti democratic society vote Labour or Lib
    If you do not want that but you do not want Tory then vote Brexit Party
    If you are conservative Brexiteer and feel betrayed vote Brexit Party.
    If you are a Remainer Tory that get more out of EU than Democracy or an independent Britain then voting Labour/Lib is a better option to secure what you want.
    If you are a Remainer Conservative that is patriotic democratic and party proud voting Conservative won't save you against the Labour/Lib threat. But votind Brexit Party will give Conservatives time to regroup over 5 years and get connected to their non feudal membership.
    Feedback on this please

  11. If Voting really made a Difference do you think They would let Us Vote? This 2019 GE is going to be sooo "Rigged" (Its not How or Who you Vote for but Who Counts the Votes that Matters) as it is in essence a second Referendum and what the Globalists/EU/Elite want they usually get. One of the ways to combat this is to have a Low Turnout, sure the other side will get in but for how long? We could end up with massive civil disobedience/protests, disruption to the status quo, a Sick or Dying Nation by regions of the UK breaking away, maybe even a police/Military Coup. What We the Little People will be doing is pitting the Elite vs the Cabal let them fight amongst themselves Big Business vs the Government and so on…and that is even before there is any outside/foreign intervention or assistance.
    Remember the key thing here is to become "Emotionless" maybe even disenfranchised, sure its hard to do but Not impossible, the Elite/Cabal rely & survive on is Us being emotionally involved even 'Patriotic' so lets Collectively reverse Psychology…
    Sometimes we have to lose a battle to Win the War!

  12. They know nothing and are not any kind of expert all guess work.
    We are all being conned and all the #Brexiteers should fight back like in the EU elections we will need 17.4 plus to vote for the #BrexitParty for real change and a real #Brexit. We all must stand by a new party to fight for our democratic rights to leave.

  13. 1 pound to 1 penny these two are remainers, They seem to me at least to be trying to scare people into voting for Boris and his deal so we never leave the corrupt EU, Vote be afraid, Boris is not our saviour, If all leavers vote for the BP that is potentially 17.4 million + votes, not the 4 million that UKIP got to win only 1 seat, Vote BP and destroy those lying Tories. and get out of the corrupt EU.
    As has been shown most of the remain MP's are in the pocket of the EU.

  14. no, the tories were never going to implement our democratic will the last 3.5 years are testiment to that he is a tosser, and this 4 eyed looney is talking bollox

  15. With a remain parliament it is difficult for Boris to get anything done. More votes for the Brexit Party will be a vote for these remain parties by default. The only way is to vote Conservative on 12th December 🇬🇧

  16. boris wins ,corbyn goes,farage fades away,swinson lasts 2 years and snp ?who knows,a lot of scottish hate bojo but not that keen on sturgeon either so lib dems could come back in force

  17. 🤨🧐 looking hard and thinking as of today, farage for what he is going to do is actually a more than genius move.
    I suspect boris may cave.

  18. I think Nigel Farage prefers growling xenophobic and extremely offensive remarks from the sidelines than actually leading. If he gets into a position of power he'll slide around like a cat on ice.

  19. Unfortunately the Scottish Nazi Party (oops sorry Nationalist )…..will hold the balance of power in the election.They will bribe Corbyn for another independence referendum and Corbyn/the Libdems will overturn Brexit….

    thats my prediciton………….unfortuantely

  20. If the effect Brexit votes have on the election the way UKIP votes had in the 2015 election then I think it will hurt Labour held seats more then Tory held seats. I think and I could be wrong Labour will lose seats giving the Tories an outright majority. I think the SNP will gain seats in the election and I think Brexit will come second or third in most north east seats. Now if Brexit gain a few Labour held seats in the north(unlikely I know) they could hold the balance of power in the Commons and that might happen if there is tactical voting by annoyed Tory and Labour voters.

    I live in Durham North West. At the last election the Tories got some 15,000 to 16,000 votes with Labour winning with some 25,000. Labour voters are unlikely to vote Tory but they might be tempted in enough numbers to switch and vote Brexit. The question is will Tory voters lend their votes to Brexit Party? If the Tory and Brexit vote is split Labour wins by default. It only takes some 5000 to 6000 Labour voters to switch for Labour to lose the seat. And this seat has been Labour at least since the early 1920s. If Brexit gain this kind of seat there will have a big presence in the Commons because they will take other seats in the surrounding area. And will probably result in a hung parliament.

  21. Sounds like Johnsons leadership to date – chaos and lacking in strategy. He needs to wake up smell the coffee and negotiate a way forward with the Brexit party, instead of listening to Cummings who has no leadership skills.

  22. The Tories want to lose the election. (Like TMay did a few months ago.) Not obvious? Brexit isn't going to happen in the current climate. Also, the popularity of the Tories erodes as BoJo fails to deliver. They want to hand the mess to someone else and heal their wound in the shadows. Let Corbyn or the LibDems explain to the people why Brexit doesn't actually mean Brexit. Let another party call a 2nd referendum.

  23. Fingers crossed that sense prevails…but am afraid that a hung parliament and more of the same pointless fight would be the most likely outcome….:(:(:(. Wtf.

  24. Bojo failed strategy is that people are so cynical that they will vote 'tactically'.
    It's an election not a battle.
    People voted Brexit not for simple and honest reasons!
    When he says 'get Brexit done' he means make Brexit go away

  25. Hang on why is it that brexit party can’t pick up seats? All they can do is upset? I think they can win seats. Our six votes will be for brexit party.

  26. In 2016 we voted Leave. If we want another referendum, there should be three options on the ballot paper;
    Leave with no deal – Which is what The Brexit party want.
    Leave with Boris' deal – Which is what Conservatives want.
    Leave with a new deal – Which is what Labour want.
    All equal Leave!
    However, what we have got is an election, which nobody wants.

  27. A wonderful Westminster/London bubble perspective. Essential viewing for Chelsea woman and those who have never ventured further north than Swiss Cottage.

  28. hung parliament, labour snp alliance, no brexit, independent Scotland, unlimited immigration- you'd better believe it. oh and Boris will lose his seat. our society is lost.

  29. I believe a coalition is the most likely outcome, despite what the Lib Dems are saying now, when the moment arrives, we will hear the usual talk of the national interest etc, the price for the Lib Dems support will be a second referendum

  30. Boris has killed the Conservatives since his deal does not get us out. Corbyn has killed the Labour Party with his stupid election promises and the fact that the Labour party is falling apart with so many leaving and criticising him. Corbyn used to be a Brexiteer now he is a remainer!. Jo Swinson….well..nobody can trust her…Exposed Lib Dems funded by their EU bosses and Jo Swinson and Antoinette Sandbach were 'bribed' by the EU and the Lib Dem Facebook campaign has been funded by the EU! Talk about a conflict of interest! As always, some politicians just work to gain personal benefit! Will the UK ever see an end to a corrupt parliament? On the 9th October, Joe Swinson met Barnier, one of her 'bosses'!
    The Scotts and the Greens want to stay in irrespective of the fact that the referendum voted to come out. They have all played into the hands of the Brexit party who promise to come out with NO DEAL….which is the only solution.

  31. I really hope Corbyn proves your deliberate smears wrong … I know for a fact there's a silent majority just waiting in the wings … As you will soon discover.
    Like they said: don't listen to the polls because they are VERY wrong 😂

  32. Hmm. PM Cameron goes to EU and asks for a better deal as member. EU laugh at him . UKIP start making ground. Cameron agrees a vote on remain or leave. Because Cameron failed to agree a deal. The UK votes to leave. parliament decide a leave vote means try and make a better "deal". Round and round we go in the fake democracy.

  33. The rules need to change – we’re no longer a two party system, so the majority required is now unrealistic and keeping it will forever doom us to endless coalitions/hung parliaments – just like Germany etc etc nothing will get done! It’s just yet another way to muddy representation and thus accountability! This has to change – I much prefer our system – first past the post – a government needs to have real power to change the direction of a country etc etc… I really hate the way things are going… restore the House of Lords as well! Bring back our traditions – we have them for damn good reason!

  34. Guess this is now out of date given that the Tories have a clear run at there current list of seats from the Brexit Party.

  35. This is not how you have a choice. But forcing people what to choose with vile tactics. This is how narcissists, psychopaths, sociopaths, serial liars and manipulators work to get their results they want to see. Add and Subtract. Stomp under the belt and tell lies. And they call it politics. More like dictators. Clearly no freedom of choice but manipulating the circumstances. The referendum means nothing. Just as this election is. Posing as "deliverers" while they have to manipulate, twist to get results. Pathetic. The idea was to get cheaper prices. I was today in a specific shop where I shop on a very regular basis. There was an American product that I buy for years and years. Guess what you who are misled. Already three price rises on it. THREE ! You Farage and Johnson you are scumbags with your promise of cheaper goods. LIARS ! You mean actually that you make it more expensive. On top, you want to meet again before the election with Trump to discuss how you can manipulate your deals with the US. The biggest in debt of the world that keeps kicking the can down the road because of the debt ceiling for generations to come. Trillions of Dollars and Pounds of debt. For generations to come and children's children.


    The real system that rules ! Right here under.

    What is a false Ponzi scheme and fraud, led by Trump and his appointed leaders. Manipulated for gain on the 3rd of December.

    You all live in a fake freedom system of lies, blindness and be governed by serial liars and dictator manipulators. Horrible Bookkeepers and Accountants, who are a disgrace with their lending and borrowing. You call this freedom ? This is chaining yourself with shackles because of the lies that are told to you. Tell me anyone of the today's prophets are loaning to others in the millions ? What they do is for themselves and their own.

    Look up Pindex on Youtube and find out what Brexit is really about. I can't believe that the IQ and EQ of you lot is the lowest I have ever seen in my life ! And you all have no clue and been lied to every single day. And you refuse to post these posts because they are the truth and the reality. You will pay through your nose for what you have asked for. All you care for is 17.4 million people while over 500 million will suffer under your choices to live under the pressure of more debt for the world that is half by the US and the UK. Where we have to pay astronomical prices for medication and food that already is rising to height this country has never seen because of inflation. Fools will be lead by (feminist) women. Like it was in Genesis and we know what the result it what Eve did when she listened to the Serpent instead. Generations of eons had to pay for it for the sin of disobedience and lies. Nothing has changed. Nothing. While half of the world will be piled into chaos and disarray because of your personal choices. When then the choices were taken, then you blame the Devil for your own choices you did and do not want to take responsibility for your actions.

    You will receive what you do not want. You will be pressurised what you never thought was possible. You will be putting a bigger yoke on you than you ever have seen. Why is it that you all women cannot take responsibility for your actions of you have sown and begin to sow. I see every day women that are confused and mislead as Eve was. Christian women. Who have lost their head in because they refuse to listen to the head of the house the man and Christ. Foolish women that go on a stampede and spree with being misled by their own false visions and plans without asking.

    You prognosticators. As the Word says: Isaiah 47:12 So take your stand with your spells and with your many sorceries, with which you have wearied yourself from your youth. Perhaps you will succeed; perhaps you will inspire terror! 13 You are wearied from your many counsels. So let them stand and save you— the astrologers who observe the stars, who monthly predict your fate. 14 Surely they are like stubble; the fire will burn them up. They cannot deliver themselves from the power of the flame. There will be no coals to warm them or fire to sit beside.…

    Isaiah 44:25 who foils the signs of false prophets and makes fools of diviners, who confounds the wise and turns their knowledge into nonsense,

    Micah 3:11 Her leaders judge for a bribe, her priests teach for a price, and her prophets practice divination for money. Yet they lean upon the LORD, saying, "Is not the LORD among us? No disaster can come upon us."

    Just wait and see what will be happening. If God was truly in control here, He did not need such drama to unfold on the world scene or UK. This is man made drama, twisting and lies. There is no need to have an election or Brexit party to manipulate and twist. The Leviathan is a sort of crocodile. Why always blame the Devil for everything that humans choose to do ! Your actions follow your choices.

    Proverbs 21:1 The king’s heart is a waterway in the hand of the LORD; He directs it where He pleases. 2 All a man’s ways seem right to him, but the LORD weighs the heart.…

    Boris Johnson is a serial liar and a serial adulterer and his socalled girlfriend is a whore that loves to play in the scenes of Alister Crowley. You call this God led ? Serial lying. You don't know the Scriptures that say: John 8:44 King James Version (KJV)
    44 Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.

    How is God leading here with a liar such as him leading this Country away ? Who are a disgrace before the face of God !!!! There is no spirit of Churchill or anything, there is only ONE Spirit and that is the Spirit of God Almighty, the Ancient of Days and no-one else's. No man can be glorified before God ! No man will be taking the Glory of God than God Himself.

    The UK people are full of lies, disgrace and debauchery and daily drunken stupor. And whoring behind their own desires. Revellers into sin and total disregard for the God of Israel. A disgrace before His Seven Eyes that roam the earth through and fro to find the righteous. They call themselves worthy for a Brexit, which is based upon lies and more lies. Lead by evil, narcissism, sociopathy, psychopathy and hell, if not Satan himself to achieve great gain for self ego and grandeur of pomposity. You will indeed watch and see the result of your choices of those that have misled you.

    So shall it be !

  36. That's a lie we can all see through, Wow another TV news-crew brainwashing the nation for another election scam WE ONLY have three choices people, corrupt unions, corrupt millionaires, or do we demand they honor the Brexit vote? as we are one of the 17 million voters they ignore from last time. STAT HOME DON'T VOTE IS THE BEST WAY TO TELL THEM THEY ARE ALL CORRUPT.

  37. We can't "STAY" in anything. We'l be subject to rules we have no decision-making power over. We have to negotiate a new CU between the UK and EU.

  38. Can the FT discuss Count Binface please? I enjoy your videos because you talk more sense than the Express and Daily Mail and people who talk about unicorns but you haven't discussed Count Binface.

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