General Election 2019 analysis – East Midlands

We are very lucky because here in the East
Midlands we have a key battleground where the election will be determined. Will it be
Boris Johnson stomping back to Downing Street or will we have a hung parliament? And there
are three Conservative target seats that will give us a story about that. The first is Ashfield. The Conservatives came
very close last time and if they don’t win Ashfield on the night we can be sure that
we are heading towards or very near a hung parliament. Second we have Bolsover. Bolsover is the seat
of Dennis Skinner, the longest serving member of the House now and a great Labour MP since
1970. He’s holding onto a 5,000 majority. Wouldn’t that be a result on the night if
Dennis Skinner lost his seat, a working class seat? So if that happens we think we are heading
for a modest Conservative majority. And then we come to Gedling, home virtually
of the Harry Houdini of British politics, the king of the marginals, Vernon Coaker,
who has held onto that seat six times by a knife edge since 1997. If Vernon goes then
we are looking for a comfortable Conservative majority. But in case I’m depressing some of you out
there, there is hope for Labour in Nottinghamshire. The first comes in Broxtowe where it’s really
beginning to turn into a battle between Anna Soubry and Greg Marshall, the Labour candidate,
for the Remain vote. And I’m predicting, sticking my neck out, that I think Greg Marshall
of the Labour party might win that seat. Another seat where Labour have a chance is in Rushcliffe.
Rushcliffe’s demographics are really quite extraordinary. Sixty per cent of the people
in Rushcliffe voted Remain. Forty per cent of people have got higher education degrees.
And fifteen per cent actually work in higher education. It’s perfect territory you would
think for the Liberal Democrats, but they’re in a distant third place. Remember the sitting
MP has stepped down, Ken Clarke, a heavily Remain Conservative. A heavily Remain Conservative.
So what will happen when he steps down? Will that incumbency factor for the Conservatives
disappear? Will the loss of a Remain Conservative force people to vote Labour? Or will the good
people of West Bridgford be terrified of a Jeremy Corbyn government? We don’t know,
it’s all very exciting and it’s all going to take place on Thursday 12th December and
I’ll be on BBC Radio Nottingham. I can’t wait, can you?

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