Brexit: is a snap election part of Boris Johnson’s strategy? | FT


Boris Johnson says he doesn’t
want a general election, and he does want a deal with
the European Union on Brexit. Can both be true? Here with me to discuss
this is Sebastian Payne, our political reporter. So I think Boris
Johnson doesn’t want to be seen to be having
a general election although, in fact, he knows
it’s quite inevitable. Ever since he went into
Downing Street just a month ago he had a working
majority of one to three. And when you’ve got
numbers that small there’s no way that you
can really do anything. And there’s so many splits
within the Conservative party, from BrexiterS, who actively
want no deal, to Remainers on the other side, who
really want something like Theresa May’s deal, or
potentially, an even softer Brexit. So although Mr Johnson
came out this week and said no, I don’t
want an election, by Wednesday or
Thursday he may well have publicly changed his mind. So let’s just unpack this. Boris Johnson says
that he’s committed to leaving the European
Union by October 31st. Is there any possibility
of a general election before that date? Or is the likelihood that
it will come afterwards? Well, this is what senior
people in the government are saying, that if parliament
votes to take control of the Brexit
process, as they did under Theresa May, when they
forced her to delay departure twice. And taking control
means another delay. Exactly. It would be saying
to Mr Johnson, we’re going to force
you to go back to the EU and ask for yet
another extension. Senior people in the
government say if that happens, Mr Johnson will slap
down a resolution to dissolve parliament and
have an election on October the 14th. That’s in about
five weeks’ time. So in theory that would happen
all before the next EU Council and before Brexit’s happened. But there are people who
don’t trust Mr Johnson, because he could say
that to parliament… I wonder why. There may be some record
that people don’t entirely say that he does
what he promises to. But Mr Johnson has to hop
on a plane up to Balmoral and ask the Queen to
dissolve parliament. He could potentially
change that date till after Brexit and people
around the prime minister have said our ideal
date for an election would be the days after
Brexit, early November. But the fact is, he’s
insisting, and senior people in the government are saying
it would be October the 14th. So yes, an election
before Brexit. And that election would be
a rerun of the referendum. Now let’s come to a benign
scenario, whereby Mr Johnson, out of a magic hat, reaches a
deal with the European Union on Brexit leaving
terms at the summit, which I believe is on… The 17th. The 17th. Then he would be in a very
strong position, wouldn’t he? Well then he’d have to
run at breakneck speed to get that deal through
parliament, because he’s made it his raison
d’etre that we will leave on the 31st of October. Even if there’s a deal he
will not countenance a delay. So if, somehow, the Irish
border backstop disappears and these alternative
solutions emerge, parliament would have
to sit morning, noon, and night, weekend, to get
that deal through in time. But isn’t this semantics? I mean, if he gets a deal at the
European summit which actually assure an agreement between
the European Union, he can say, look. It’s signed, sealed. It’s just not quite delivered. Well, that deal as
well, let us forget, will be Theresa May’s
deal, with some tweaks. It’ll smell, sound, and feel
like the deal that was voted through three times before. Because we know,
from the EU, it’s not going to fundamentally change. But what Mr Johnson wants is
some tweaks here and there, to make it sound and
look like a new deal. Yes, he can say it’s all done. But a lot of people in
parliament, and particularly the Conservative party,
won’t be convinced. Now, I’m going to put you
on the spot here, Sebastian. A general election, what chances
are there of Boris Johnson winning a majority? Or are we likely
to see a deadlock, as we have at the moment? A deadlock is very likely. If you look at the opinion
polls and election experts they essentially say that we
get a result not too dissimilar to what we’ve got now. Because the Conservatives
would lose a lot of their seats in Scotland, to the
Scottish National party. They’d lose a lot of their seats
in the more Remainier parts of the country. The Liberal Democrats
would pick up those metropolitan
liberal seats that were won under David Cameron. But then, on the flip
side, they would pick up some Brexit supporting seats
in the north and the Midlands. So the Conservatives may end up
quite like where they are now. But the key factor
is Nigel Farage, the man who scares the Tories
more than anything else. Because if he runs, and runs
on a very hard Brexit platform, saying that it’s no-deal,
that’s all that matters. And he will take away
the Conservative vote, and potentially let in
even more Liberal Democrats in the south-west, say, and even
more Labour seats in the north and what have you. So really, I think
it’s very hard to see how the Conservatives
are going to get through this. But the campaigns
are very volatile. We remember 2017
when Theresa May went in with a
commanding position, and came out having
lost everything. So an election is really
going to depend on what happens to
the Brexit party, and what Brexit message
Boris Johnson runs on. And finally, what happens to
Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party, particularly after our
three part series this week on the Corbyn revolution, which
sets out vast spending plans and a wholesale reversal
of the Thatcher revolution. Thank you, Sebastian.




Comments
  1. How the other interviewer kept a straight face with all that lip froth formulating on the other interviewers bottom lip….

  2. Thank you .Conservative MP Phillip Lee has defected to the Liberal Democrats. So wait and see …..:) China is still doing well

  3. No one trusts bankers so it’s a bit rich calling borris out considering most of you were involved in bankrupting the uk a decade ago 🤔

  4. Bring Oliver Cromwell back from the dead.☝️CLEAR the lot out .!,👏🏻👏🏻Cromwell and Farage to run Parliaments😂😂👍

  5. If boris can't deliver a no deal brexit then he should hold an election so Nigel farage can fulfill the will of the people.

  6. Let them pass the legislation, and if the election bid fails because of
    the cowardice of the other parties, go to Brussels as required and use
    the UK veto to block any extension. The legislation only requires him to
    ask for an extension to A50, not to vote for it. Mission accomplished.
    Go Boris!

  7. Let them pass the legislation, and if the election bid fails because of
    the cowardice of the other parties, go to Brussels as required and use
    the UK veto to block any extension. The legislation only requires him to
    ask for an extension to A50, not to vote for it. Mission accomplished.
    Go Boris!

  8. One day it’s a coup.

    The next they’re blocking no deal.

    We keep pick pick picking at boris and what happens? We get mps trying to impress their twitter followers whilst voting for a referendum, voting for article 50, voting to reject Theresa Mays deal and now blocking no deal.

    What exactly do they want? & yet we attack Boris again.

  9. It's not about the EU. It's about turning the UK into Singapore. To do that, UK has to leave the EU.

    And while the government is doing the hokey cokey with EU membership and wallowing in delusions of economic grandeur, the UK will remain economically divided and in a permanent state of misery because of the government's economic and political agenda which the government has been following for the past 40 years whether the UK is in or out.

  10. Put it back to the people of Britain 17.4 million will to you different hope this time listen 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇬🇧👍

  11. If Parliament numbers don't change then the remain MPs will just keep us in the EU indefinitely, with extension after extension. 17.4 million people voted leave and won the referendum, yet remain has controlled everything since 2016. Since the referendum result we have paid the EU 40 billion Euros, whilst Parliament refuses to let us leave.

  12. The EU hold all the cards and promises were made… they also know that when the UK leaves…..this joke a union falls apart…. hence the fear campaign.

  13. BREXIT PARTY will sweep them all out , then not be able to deliver , because he is a freemason also . he would become PM overnight , when and if you have a GE

  14. We appreciate meaningful contributions to this channel. We do not tolerate hate speech or inappropriate comments. Thank you.

  15. Using democratic processes to get out from under a coup, is absurd. Britian has not had democracy since the EU took over her laws and forced Britain to bow to millions of people with anti British interests.

  16. very clever but i do agree that it was part of PM Johnson strategy. but really, what a mess! GB needs to move forward from this ongoing soap opera.

  17. Pity even the FT serves an EU agenda.

    The issue here is that it is the EU is a failed project and it must be reduced and restructured to serve only as a channel with a single mandate to serve the people of Europe, not the corporatocracy it has become.

    There is no 'strength in scale' as sold by the EU State; certainly not when it is far from being democratic.
    Indeed, there is strength in the diversity of each Nation-State in Europe as this enables the different peoples of Europe influence the impact of their involvement in global issues.

    The EU Stae seeks only to undermine the UK's competitiveness and shackle the UK's ability to run its own affairs. The EU State project cannot survive with an independent competitive UK with its own balanced trade agreements with the USA, China, Russia, India, and the Commonwealth etc.

    A USA – UK trade agreement outlined now would illustrate the real benefit of being sovereign. It would show the EU's failure as a channel for open trade, specifically why the EU fails for SMEs in Europe and supports only the corporatocracy.

    This is why EU State will not agree to a sensible balanced trade agreement with the UK. The EU State must be forced to accept an agreement that works for all the people of Europe and not itself. This cannot be done by the UK, it needs the people of Europe, in Germany, France, Italy, Catalunya, Greece, Portugal, Poland, Hungary… to take back control of their trade, borders, law.

    However, the EU need not be concerned. The UK's uneducated, inexperienced, duplicitous, self-serving career 'politicians' are doing their bidding.

    Even the MSM (especially the BBC paid for by the public) sell the EU propaganda.

    They do not facilitate discussion about the value and ROCE in the EU delivers for the people of Europe. They know it would further undermine the EU State project; there is no ROCE or benefit to societal stability.

    There is no debate why the Southern states have been impoverished with mass youth unemployment. Sure the regional people in Spain, Greece, Italy prefer to trust unelected bureaucrats in the EU rather than their own elected corrupt 'politicians' to reallocate money to their regional cause (this is just one of the many tools used by the EU State to subvert the people's will).

    The WWs were fought for people's freedom and sovereignty, against a centralist unelected rule.

    These UK 'remainer' politicians do not state the benefit in staying under the EU State rule. Perhaps they are just incompetent. But they do not represent UK democracy. The Whim of the People has told their elected representatives to leave the EU State.

    It is clear that the National 'Parliaments' across Europe have been lost to a cabal that serves only to pursue this EU centralist agenda, 'Vote again if you vote against the EU' – even in the UK.

    The idea that they rest control from Johnson's government to prevent any form of sensible and rigorous negotiation with the EU State shows how far the people have lost democracy.

  18. I thought the EU would blink at the last minute? I thought Boris Johnson was going to go in with all guns blazing etc? I thought the Tory party was a 'broad church'? How did all that go?

  19. The conservatives have form when it comes to manipulating ‘democracy’ even before the Labour Party came along. Like reading the ‘riot act’ out in Manchester on Monday 16 August 1819 to an unarmed crowd of men women and children. Then ordering armed cavalry to ride into the crowd slashing at them with their swords because the workers were starving and DARED to agitate for parliamentary reform. After the massacre, which killed 18 men, women, and children and injured 400-700, the Conservative government were completely unrepentant and immediately passed six acts, acts which were aimed at suppressing any further meetings of the working class for the purpose of radical reform. They have always been self centred, self seeking manipulative scum!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre

  20. I'm recalling when Ireland had to vote 3 times on the prospect of joining the EU. Do it over until you get it right seems to be the essence of the EU's strategy.

  21. Will of the English People,Brexit Vote….laughs in Globalist, am I right Financial Times,we all know who you work for, and it isn't the English people.

  22. I think boris is playing a hard game
    He has to deliver a no deal brexit because he must realise that any deal that embodies parts or all of theresa mays deal will see.people flock to farage

    Boris must work with farage to delivèr brexit

  23. When will you dirty politicians and finance people take into account that there was a yes from the people at an election, which says the UK should leave the EU! Look at Europe: The new shithole area of ​​the world! Obstruction from traitors!

  24. We have had 3+yrs of what started as parliament & now its turned into the Muppet show
    We have MPs /ministers with lots of vested interests in staying in the EU both personal & business telling their voters that they would vote to leave the EU then doing a 360 and voting to stay in because they will loose their lucrative jobs & expenses ,MPs changing parties & or setting up indendent parties
    In the last 3+ trs MPs /ministers have shown their true colors to the public with more to come
    Parliament is now the muppet show and the public are seeing just how devicive parliament can be .

    Win loose or draw brexit a lot of the public wont see any point in voting for an MP who more than likely to do the opposite of what he or she said to get the public to vote for them
    Whats the point in voting in local or main elections =none there is no point !

    After this im a non voter !

  25. Boris is right, we can’t delay anymore no matter what. The EU are hoping we break, they will not give us any better deal..

  26. I live in the US . In California they have many referendums and plebiscites . They usually result in disaster . They are based on anti this, that and the other . Sensible progressive and moderate people usually don't vote in referendums . Snap elections are not enough time to , thoroughly educate the people on what the issues are , time to prepare on helping people get to the polls and so on . However I do think the 2011 fixed term law against calling for general elections in the UK is quite undemocratic . It is next to impossible to get a 2/3s parliament vote for general elections .

    I don't know how long polling or voting stations are open but all elections in the US favor the upper middle and higher classes . Since Reagan/Thatcher reactionary ethos , many people here in the USA work too many hours and either can't get to vote on time or are just too exhausted . Election day should be 24 hours round the clock . or two days lets say a sunday with 12pm to 12am and a monday with the usual 8am to 8pm .

  27. You hold a referendum and then you live with the result, anything else means you are in a dictatorship anyway they want to word it.

  28. You MSM just lie lie lie. Boris has a big ace up his sleeve. You liars just make things up, There will not be a deal like you are talking about, That would be the end of the conservative party. So stop lying, This coup will be stalled at the house of lords and you know it. So stop with your agenda and report the facts.

  29. You mean you only want comments that agree with you agenda. Do you tolerate treason? Yes you are all for that. Hate speech is something that you don't agree with, that does not again fit your agenda. You the MSM are part of the big problems we see in this country at the moment. But HELL i am only a peasant that likes democracy, so i should stand aside while people like you try and take our democracy from us for your own ill gotten gain.

  30. This video could be very short, the answer to the question posed at the beginning is: of course both can be true dumb-dumb, they are not mutually exclusive…

  31. Corbyn likely to govern only with support from other parties (Lib Dems, SNP). These will rein in his more extreme economic policies.

  32. Nigel Farage for PM. BoJo the clown is a closet remainer.
    General strike for general election. Remember 1381.
    Nigel Farage for PM.

  33. The people of this country stand with BJ and when a general election comes he will win in a landslide providing he does a deal with the Brexit Party

  34. Cons and Brexit party team up and they'll trounce it in the most glorious way. The US, Australia and many other nations hold Britian is very high regard and cannot believe what is going on or why we'd give out country away accept the rule of the EU.

  35. It's not up too Northern Ireland, France may veto it where are we going from here finish it of no extention as it will go on and on they had enough time too decided the remainders if they want too stay in and the leavers did vote too get out of Europe why it is not a vote for them.
    . I think many reasons people voted too leave is too leave Europe and many politicians said they had voted leave but not too leave Europe what a mess. I voted too leave as I like the idea of working with other countries outside Europe as we work on World Trade Organisations. If the Queen voted too leave she would be voted that she would like the idea of working with her commonwealth countries sounds good as they all need are support and they may bring in new ideas too the UK and trade with us bring in new medicains. I like President Tuder of Canada maybe I was treated the best when I was on holiday in Canada more than of a born citizen of the UK maybe Canada is richer than us I don't know good food and merchandise . We will get a rebate from the UK and use the rebate that governments hold not too spend too put it into good use Canada and America doing well on The World Trade organizational terms. The remainders may disapprove. Richard Exeter UK

  36. The people of Britain should demand a general election it that’s what Boris Johnson wants and they should not have that right taken away by “Remain” rebels who are turning the country into a banana republic….

  37. The EU and the globalists will do anything to undermine BREXIT. It's time for Britons to claim back their independence, freedom and democracy.

  38. Unfortunally Europe are not trusting European leaders more because of Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Russia 🇷🇺 that’s a main issue ,and England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 doesn’t want to be drag in Europe is controlled with to many captains and my Grand dad use to say a ship 🚢 with more then one captain 👩‍✈️ goes nowhere

  39. Europe don’t want England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 to leave but Europe wasn’t fair with English people the war between Russia and Ukraine the hateful people being sent to England and all the money that was giving to Germany every day wake up England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 take control europe is a ship with a lot of captains that is sinking

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